Taxi in Addis Abeba commonly referred to as“Weyeyet” (discussion) because of its two opposing benches.
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Ethiopia’s National Dialogue

Issues and Potential Scenarios
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A thorough analysis of Ethiopia’s current national dialogue endeavors first requires a comprehensive examination of recent political developments, historical context, and the contentious issues at the core of the nation’s present challenges. A profound understanding of these underlying factors is essential to chart a course for Ethiopia out of its current predicament.

This paper seeks to analyze various scenarios to gain insights into the current status of the national dialogue, assess the direction it is presently heading to, and engage in a discussion on the necessary actions to guide it towards a promising trajectory. Furthermore, it evaluates the prospects of establishing an improved framework to address the inherent fault lines in the Ethiopian context. While reviewing the potential outcomes and implications of Ethiopia‘s national dialogue across four scenarios, it also presents additional considerations for thoughtful deliberation.

The article emphasizes the critical need to recognize that even an ideal scenario in Ethiopia may not resolve the crisis entirely. It highlights the significance of addressing challenges through dialogue rather than violence, proposing dialogue as a peaceful and credible means to address a range of issues. However, the actions of the National Dialogue Commission, perceived as controlling rather than fulfilling its responsibilities, risk undermining the legitimacy of the process. 



Product details
Date of Publication
July 2024
Number of Pages
All rights reserved
Language of publication
Table of contents
Executive summary     5
Issues in and Background of Ethiopia’s National Dialogue  6
Large-scale Contestations and Continuing Fighting: Impact on the National Dialogue       12
National Dialogue                                                                                                                17
Possible scenarios of the National dialogue                                                                         19
Analysis of the scenarios                                                                                                      20
Conclusion                                                                                                                            24